by Michael Aird, Staff Researcher at Rethink Priorities

Starting June 22, Metaculus and Rethink Priorities Will Run the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament to Improve Research and Decisions on Risks from Nuclear Weapons

In 1941, no one had ever built a nuclear weapon, and most people had no idea that anyone ever might. Over the following 80 years, the Allies built such weapons, the US detonated two on cities, and scientists and engineers developed or proposed many new and vastly more destructive types of nuclear weapons. Global stockpiles peaked at 70,000 warheads (compared to today’s ~13,000), and the total yield of the US arsenal alone peaked at over a million times the yield of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

In 2021, nine states are believed…


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