SAN FRANCISCO, CA — Today, the Institute for Progress, Guarding Against Pandemics, and Metaculus are launching the Biosecurity Forecasting Tournament, a multi-year competition designed to deliver trustworthy and actionable forecasts on biological risks to public health policymakers. This tournament will combine probabilistic forecasts from both biosecurity experts and experienced forecasters…

By Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus At Metaculus, our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Why do we focus on building “epistemic” infrastructure? To answer that question, we’ll dive into what epistemology…

by Gaia Dempsey, CEO at Metaculus Today, the world’s attention is riveted by the intensifying military brinkmanship playing out on the Russian-Ukrainian border. People are turning to geopolitical experts and analysts of all stripes to understand whether Russia will invade Ukraine — but few know about public forecasting platforms, which…

by Michael Aird, Staff Researcher at Rethink Priorities Starting June 22, Metaculus and Rethink Priorities Will Run the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament to Improve Research and Decisions on Risks from Nuclear Weapons In 1941, no one had ever built a nuclear weapon, and most people had no idea that anyone ever might. Over the following 80 years, the Allies built such weapons, the US detonated two on cities, and scientists and engineers developed or…

by Gaia Dempsey, CEO at Metaculus How it all began Last fall, we introduced a question series on Metaculus focused on US Economic Indicators and began launching monthly (or in some cases quarterly) questions on six of the most cited macroeconomic indicators. This was an experiment — led by Metaculus moderator and team member…

by Gaia Dempsey, CEO, Metaculus April was a busy month at Metaculus. …

Reputation-Based Community Forecasting on the Trajectory of COVID-19 Cases, Vaccines, and Interventions to Support the Development of Science-Informed Policy — by Gaia Dempsey, CEO, Metaculus Over a year into the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic, the World Health Organization’s World Immunization Week this year holds special significance as over a dozen new COVID-19 vaccines have received government authorization and are being widely distributed in communities around the world.

By Juan Cambeiro, Analyst at Metaculus In February 2021 we provided an update on COVID-19, outlining how the new variants would shape this next phase of the pandemic. Indeed, the story of the pandemic since then has largely been of a race between vaccinations and the spread of worrisome variants. …

Metaculus and the Good Food Institute Launch the Alternative Protein Tournament to Forecast the Global Transformation of Protein Production and Consumption by Gaia Dempsey, CEO at Metaculus Metaculus as an organization strives to combine the best aspects of scientific culture and applied innovation culture. We deeply respect and value insight…