2022 was a year of progress, growth, and change at Metaculus. We matured and grew as an organization. Mission Update: In the spring, we expanded the scope of our mission, creating a solid foundation for our work. Specifically, our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the…

Metaculus recently achieved a big milestone: 1,000,000 predictions on over 7,000 questions! This unique dataset represents a rich, quantitative set of perspectives on the future of humanity, with particular focus on technological and scientific progress, and events with potential global impact. …

Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus are pleased to announce our first collaboration. Our organizations, which represent two of the largest human judgment forecasting communities in the world, will compare our results and methodologies in a project comprised of identical forecasting questions that ask about the future of 10 Our World…

Over the last few months, the Metaculus team has been working to bring great new people into the organization within multiple functions. So far, we have received 923 applications for 13 roles in engineering, research, data science, forecasting programs, operations, community management, and administration. Today, we are very excited to…

With support from the FTX Future Fund, the project features a public forecasting tournament and a Pro Forecaster initiative delivering 1, 3, 10, 30, and 100-year predictions Today, Metaculus is launching Forecasting Our World In Data, a tournament that will deliver predictions on technological advancement, global development, and social progress on time horizons ranging from one to 100 years, with close collaboration from the Our World In Data (OWID) team.

They Say The First Million Is the Hardest As I’ve said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that’s growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we’ve crossed the 7-digit threshold. We have aggregated over…

The infusion of funding from Open Philanthropy will significantly boost the growth of Metaculus’s forecasting programs, technology development, and hiring It’s with great excitement that we announce Metaculus has been awarded a $5.5M grant from Open Philanthropy to fund additional hiring and platform development in support of high-impact forecasting programs on AI, biosecurity, climate change, nuclear security, and other topics.

SAN FRANCISCO, CA — Today, the Institute for Progress, Guarding Against Pandemics, and Metaculus are launching the Biosecurity Forecasting Tournament, a multi-year competition designed to deliver trustworthy and actionable forecasts on biological risks to public health policymakers. This tournament will combine probabilistic forecasts from both biosecurity experts and experienced forecasters…

By Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus At Metaculus, our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Why do we focus on building “epistemic” infrastructure? To answer that question, we’ll dive into what epistemology…