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About Metaculus

Your mind is an incredible engine for predicting the future. Every decision you make weighs future outcomes against each other, and you choose which outcome you prefer. But the world is complex, and many predictions — while incredibly important — are hard to make. Science has developed largely to fill this gap, making stunning predictions about systems that can be accurately modeled mathematically or numerically using theoretical constructs, but it still often cannot predict the behavior of complex, and especially social, systems. It is often assumed that such events are simply unpredictable. But they aren’t. Research shows that with some of the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can make remarkably accurate predictions on the probability of future events, rather than merely whether or not they will happen. This capability is apparent in financial and other markets, but can be extended beyond corporation and commodity values to any area of human interest; this is the aim of Metaculus. Metaculus was formed with the goal of improving decision-making by soliciting, improving, and optimally aggregating quantitative predictions of future events.

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