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Metaculus
Metaculus

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Feb 24

Why I Reject the Comparison of Metaculus to Prediction Markets

Metaculus is not a prediction market. Metaculus and prediction markets both aggregate users’ forecasts, and both reward users for accurately anticipating the future. But the mechanism for doing so says a lot about the values of each. The purpose of markets is to determine price, and participants try to maximize…

Forecasting

6 min read

Why I Reject the Comparison of Metaculus to Prediction Markets
Why I Reject the Comparison of Metaculus to Prediction Markets
Forecasting

6 min read


Jan 5

Metaculus Year in Review: 2022

2022 was a year of progress, growth, and change at Metaculus. We matured and grew as an organization. Mission Update: In the spring, we expanded the scope of our mission, creating a solid foundation for our work. Specifically, our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the…

Forecasting

6 min read

Metaculus Year in Review: 2022
Metaculus Year in Review: 2022
Forecasting

6 min read


Nov 10, 2022

Announcing Metaculus’s Million Predictions Hackathon!

Metaculus recently achieved a big milestone: 1,000,000 predictions on over 7,000 questions! This unique dataset represents a rich, quantitative set of perspectives on the future of humanity, with particular focus on technological and scientific progress, and events with potential global impact. …

Hackathons

4 min read

Announcing Metaculus’s Million Predictions Hackathon!
Announcing Metaculus’s Million Predictions Hackathon!
Hackathons

4 min read


Oct 27, 2022

Metaculus and Good Judgment Inc Launch First Collaboration

Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus are pleased to announce our first collaboration. Our organizations, which represent two of the largest human judgment forecasting communities in the world, will compare our results and methodologies in a project comprised of identical forecasting questions that ask about the future of 10 Our World…

Forecasting

2 min read

Forecasting

2 min read


Oct 19, 2022

Welcoming New Members of the Metaculus Leadership Team

Over the last few months, the Metaculus team has been working to bring great new people into the organization within multiple functions. So far, we have received 923 applications for 13 roles in engineering, research, data science, forecasting programs, operations, community management, and administration. Today, we are very excited to…

Forecasting

3 min read

Forecasting

3 min read


Oct 12, 2022

Metaculus Launches the ‘Forecasting Our World In Data’ Project to Probe the Long-Term Future

With support from the FTX Future Fund, the project features a public forecasting tournament and a Pro Forecaster initiative delivering 1, 3, 10, 30, and 100-year predictions Today, Metaculus is launching Forecasting Our World In Data, a tournament that will deliver predictions on technological advancement, global development, and social progress on time horizons ranging from one to 100 years, with close collaboration from the Our World In Data (OWID) team.

Forecasting

2 min read

Forecasting

2 min read


Sep 12, 2022

Becoming a Public Benefit Corporation, Hitting 1 Million Predictions, and Three New AI Forecasting Roles

They Say The First Million Is the Hardest As I’ve said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that’s growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we’ve crossed the 7-digit threshold. We have aggregated over…

Forecasting

3 min read

Forecasting

3 min read


Jul 28, 2022

Metaculus Awarded $5.5M Grant to Advance Forecasting as a Public Good

The infusion of funding from Open Philanthropy will significantly boost the growth of Metaculus’s forecasting programs, technology development, and hiring It’s with great excitement that we announce Metaculus has been awarded a $5.5M grant from Open Philanthropy to fund additional hiring and platform development in support of high-impact forecasting programs on AI, biosecurity, climate change, nuclear security, and other topics.

Forecasting

2 min read

Forecasting

2 min read


Jun 9, 2022

Announcing the Biosecurity Forecasting Tournament

SAN FRANCISCO, CA — Today, the Institute for Progress, Guarding Against Pandemics, and Metaculus are launching the Biosecurity Forecasting Tournament, a multi-year competition designed to deliver trustworthy and actionable forecasts on biological risks to public health policymakers. This tournament will combine probabilistic forecasts from both biosecurity experts and experienced forecasters…

Biosecurity

2 min read

Biosecurity

2 min read


May 7, 2022

Forecasting, Science, and Epistemology

By Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus At Metaculus, our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Why do we focus on building “epistemic” infrastructure? To answer that question, we’ll dive into what epistemology…

Forecasting

4 min read

Forecasting, Science, and Epistemology
Forecasting, Science, and Epistemology
Forecasting

4 min read

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Metaculus

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